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analysis_output.txt
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analysis_output.txt
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Outcome: Sustained Finding
==========================
Balanced group sizes: 11748 11748
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.504556
Iterations 7
Results: Logit
===================================================================================================
Model: Logit Pseudo R-squared: 0.272
Dependent Variable: investigative_outcome AIC: 11907.0496
Date: 2020-07-06 15:43 BIC: 12098.7069
No. Observations: 11748 Log-Likelihood: -5927.5
Df Model: 25 LL-Null: -8143.1
Df Residuals: 11722 LLR p-value: 0.0000
Converged: 1.0000 Scale: 1.0000
No. Iterations: 7.0000
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
complainant_age 0.0204 0.0018 11.6323 0.0000 0.0169 0.0238
district_population 0.0000 0.0000 9.8184 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
district_income 0.0000 0.0000 20.1308 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
district_pct_black 0.0146 0.0010 14.0814 0.0000 0.0126 0.0166
month_of_year 0.0718 0.0067 10.7085 0.0000 0.0587 0.0849
complainant_race_asian -1.1132 0.2961 -3.7598 0.0002 -1.6935 -0.5329
complainant_race_black -0.2009 0.0832 -2.4150 0.0157 -0.3640 -0.0379
complainant_race_latino 0.2711 0.1150 2.3566 0.0184 0.0456 0.4966
complainant_race_white 0.0070 0.0958 0.0730 0.9418 -0.1808 0.1948
complainant_sex_female -0.2907 0.0810 -3.5896 0.0003 -0.4495 -0.1320
complainant_sex_male -0.1120 0.0762 -1.4702 0.1415 -0.2614 0.0373
po_race_asian -2.8922 0.2245 -12.8842 0.0000 -3.3322 -2.4523
po_race_black -2.0196 0.0869 -23.2467 0.0000 -2.1899 -1.8493
po_race_latino -2.2224 0.1167 -19.0424 0.0000 -2.4511 -1.9937
po_race_white -2.0920 0.0811 -25.7925 0.0000 -2.2509 -1.9330
po_sex_female -0.4796 0.1159 -4.1369 0.0000 -0.7069 -0.2524
po_sex_male -0.1694 0.0928 -1.8250 0.0680 -0.3513 0.0125
general_cap_classification_Civil Rights Complaint -2.4623 0.1548 -15.9020 0.0000 -2.7658 -2.1588
general_cap_classification_Criminal Allegation -2.0577 0.1270 -16.1998 0.0000 -2.3067 -1.8087
general_cap_classification_Departmental Violations -2.0628 0.0816 -25.2923 0.0000 -2.2227 -1.9030
general_cap_classification_Domestic -2.1708 0.2677 -8.1100 0.0000 -2.6954 -1.6462
general_cap_classification_Harassment -2.6043 0.1402 -18.5819 0.0000 -2.8790 -2.3296
general_cap_classification_Lack Of Service -2.2870 0.0913 -25.0547 0.0000 -2.4660 -2.1081
general_cap_classification_Physical Abuse -2.2554 0.0837 -26.9353 0.0000 -2.4195 -2.0913
general_cap_classification_Unprofessional Conduct -2.5325 0.1269 -19.9527 0.0000 -2.7813 -2.2838
general_cap_classification_Verbal Abuse -2.7801 0.1158 -24.0042 0.0000 -3.0071 -2.5531
===================================================================================================
Random Forest Feature Importances:
po_race_white 0.1718835298470356
po_sex_male 0.12280137471200926
general_cap_classification_Physical Abuse 0.11686264784332927
complainant_sex_female 0.08826851259505768
po_race_black 0.08116777941123862
complainant_race_black 0.07897078119377272
po_sex_female 0.058845665860749734
general_cap_classification_Verbal Abuse 0.048607144407322486
po_race_latino 0.04603806141516239
general_cap_classification_Departmental Violations 0.043852686304279735
district_income 0.02852019529272077
district_population 0.019364317087224
district_pct_black 0.016587459504355546
general_cap_classification_Lack Of Service 0.013920817496094449
complainant_race_latino 0.01351507927157581
complainant_sex_male 0.013022307280419072
general_cap_classification_Unprofessional Conduct 0.012864477512624803
general_cap_classification_Harassment 0.007237814543986504
month_of_year 0.006829765123624578
complainant_age 0.006654530973600846
complainant_race_white 0.004107975659729074
complainant_race_asian 7.707666408718683e-05
po_race_asian 0.0
general_cap_classification_Civil Rights Complaint 0.0
general_cap_classification_Criminal Allegation 0.0
general_cap_classification_Domestic 0.0
Accuracy: 0.71 (+/- 0.19)
Outcome: Guilty Finding
=======================
Balanced group sizes: 13500 13500
Optimization terminated successfully.
Current function value: 0.371167
Iterations 7
Results: Logit
===================================================================================================
Model: Logit Pseudo R-squared: 0.465
Dependent Variable: investigative_outcome AIC: 10061.5060
Date: 2020-07-06 15:43 BIC: 10211.7149
No. Observations: 13500 Log-Likelihood: -5010.8
Df Model: 19 LL-Null: -9357.5
Df Residuals: 13480 LLR p-value: 0.0000
Converged: 1.0000 Scale: 1.0000
No. Iterations: 7.0000
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
complainant_age 0.0398 0.0019 21.1116 0.0000 0.0361 0.0435
district_population 0.0000 0.0000 11.5556 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
district_income 0.0000 0.0000 26.2525 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
district_pct_black 0.0087 0.0012 7.3280 0.0000 0.0064 0.0110
month_of_year -0.0110 0.0079 -1.3911 0.1642 -0.0265 0.0045
complainant_race_black -1.6480 0.0765 -21.5323 0.0000 -1.7980 -1.4980
complainant_race_latino -1.3716 0.1299 -10.5567 0.0000 -1.6263 -1.1170
complainant_race_white -0.4580 0.0834 -5.4924 0.0000 -0.6215 -0.2946
complainant_sex_female -0.9234 0.0753 -12.2651 0.0000 -1.0710 -0.7758
complainant_sex_male -1.3430 0.0756 -17.7588 0.0000 -1.4912 -1.1947
po_race_black -1.9448 0.0793 -24.5226 0.0000 -2.1002 -1.7893
po_race_latino -2.2572 0.1079 -20.9114 0.0000 -2.4687 -2.0456
po_race_white -3.4134 0.0828 -41.2052 0.0000 -3.5758 -3.2511
po_sex_female -1.0112 0.1215 -8.3244 0.0000 -1.2493 -0.7731
po_sex_male -0.1465 0.0934 -1.5685 0.1168 -0.3295 0.0366
general_cap_classification_Departmental Violations -1.5362 0.0902 -17.0326 0.0000 -1.7130 -1.3595
general_cap_classification_Harassment -0.2010 0.1109 -1.8125 0.0699 -0.4183 0.0164
general_cap_classification_Lack Of Service -1.4643 0.0844 -17.3415 0.0000 -1.6298 -1.2988
general_cap_classification_Physical Abuse -0.5155 0.0696 -7.4045 0.0000 -0.6519 -0.3790
general_cap_classification_Verbal Abuse -0.9327 0.1029 -9.0640 0.0000 -1.1344 -0.7310
===================================================================================================
Random Forest Feature Importances:
po_race_white 0.27349569530261
complainant_race_black 0.17935715955691323
general_cap_classification_Departmental Violations 0.1320248489189315
district_income 0.08980198999889255
complainant_sex_female 0.062299707430782274
district_pct_black 0.050936339206747575
complainant_sex_male 0.05048806817349336
month_of_year 0.047295395701567544
po_sex_male 0.035212550876738094
po_race_black 0.015788698989208084
district_population 0.011300658013168374
complainant_age 0.01129361389604478
complainant_race_latino 0.010420364965093742
po_sex_female 0.010384196270069746
general_cap_classification_Lack Of Service 0.009719790811964087
complainant_race_white 0.005479847908593182
po_race_latino 0.0020612644362212676
general_cap_classification_Verbal Abuse 0.001494161364628119
general_cap_classification_Physical Abuse 0.0009355308583620177
general_cap_classification_Harassment 0.00021011731997060726
Accuracy: 0.83 (+/- 0.02)