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---
title: "Zooming on *Zoomers*"
subtitle: "A Comprehensive Analysis of Quebec's Shifting Independence Dynamics"
author: "<table style='margin-top: -290px; width: 100%; text-align: center;'><tr><td style='vertical-align: top; padding-right: 5px;'>Étienne Proulx<br>Alexandre Bouillon<br>Laurence-Olivier M. Foisy</td><td style='vertical-align: top;'>Hubert Cadieux<br>Yannick Dufresne</td></tr></table>"
institute: "Université Laval"
format:
revealjs:
theme: serif
logo: images/ul_logo_spsa.png
footer: "Zooming on *Zoomers*"
---
## Where lies the potential evolution of attitudes towards Quebec's independence? {.center}
::: {.notes}
Let's start with the question that the article is concerned with: Where lies the potential evolution of attitudes towards the independence of Quebec? Initially, the project we were interested in was to measure the potential political biases of chatGPT towards different profiles of Quebec separatists. However, in light of our dataset, it became important for us to first make a contribution on the various profiles of Quebecers most likely to evolve in their attitudes towards independence.
:::
## A brief overview of the question of Quebec's independence and the existing literature
### Historical Context
The case of Quebec in Canada
### Literature
- Life-cycle effect
- Cohorts effect
- Periods and event effect
::: {.notes}
Quebec has been historically marked by the existence of an independence movement and attitudes towards independence. This historical context provides a fertile ground for a rigorous contemporary analysis of independence attitudes in multinational states. Especially since historically, the question of Quebec's independence has been crucial for understanding electoral behaviors in Quebec. In recent years, the issue of independence seems to be less structuring in the Quebec political landscape. Therefore, the analysis of contemporary attitudes towards the question is important.
The recent literature on the determinants of independence attitudes has predominantly focused on the life cycle effect, cohort effects, and the effect of periods and events.
The life cycle effect assumes that the young would be more pro-independence than the old, having less to lose, while the old would be less pro-independence, wanting to preserve their achievements and a certain stability. The effects of generations imply that it is rather political socialization in young adulthood that creates shaping values that generations will keep for the rest of their lives. The effects of periods and events provide a shorter-term view of political socialization and suggest that an event or period in the short term will play a role in the short-term evolution of attitudes towards independence.
:::
## Political socialization and the formation of deep-seated values during the young adult period
- Fluctuating effects of the life cycle
- Not necessarily the project of a generation
- Focus on political socialization during the young adult period
::: {.notes}
Fluctuating effects of the life cycle. Not necessarily the project of a generation. One of the most important and explanatory factors, however, remains the processes of political socialization during the young adult period. These processes are generally associated with events or periods that shape the evolution of political attitudes.
:::
## Question
Where lies the potential evolution of attitudes towards Quebec's independence in the Gen Z?
::: {.notes}
Based on the theoretical assumption that one of the most explanatory factors for attitudes towards independence is political socialization during the young adult period, the article focuses on Generation Z as it is currently going through the young adult period.The question is, therefore: Where lies the potential evolution of attitudes towards the Quebec's independence in the Gen Z? We added the variable 'region' to the models in order to geographically locate the potential evolution, and because few studies on independence attitudes have done so.
:::
## Methodology {auto-animate=true auto-animate-easing="ease-in-out"}
::: {.r-hstack}
::: {data-id="box1" auto-animate-delay="0" style="background: #3d8f73; width: 400px; height: 270px; margin: 10px; display: flex; align-items: center; justify-content: center; text-align: center; padding: 20px;"}
**Canadian Election Studies (1974 -2021)**
:::
::: {data-id="box2" auto-animate-delay="0.1" style="background: #33b086; width: 400px; height: 270px; margin: 10px; display: flex; align-items: center; justify-content: center; text-align: center; padding: 20px;"}
**Synopsis Surveys (Jan to Sep 2022)**
:::
::: {data-id="box3" auto-animate-delay="0.2" style="background: #25cc94; width: 400px; height: 270px; margin: 10px; display: flex; align-items: center; justify-content: center; text-align: center; padding: 20px;"}
**Pilot Survey from Quorum Project (Aug 2023)**
:::
:::
## Methodology {auto-animate=true auto-animate-easing="ease-in-out"}
::: {.r-stack}
::: {data-id="box1" style="background: #3d8f73; width: 350px; height: 350px; border-radius: 200px;"}
:::
::: {data-id="box2" style="background: #33b086; width: 250px; height: 250px; border-radius: 200px;"}
:::
::: {data-id="box3" style="background: #25cc94; width: 150px; height: 150px; border-radius: 200px; display: flex; align-items: center; justify-content: center; text-align: center; flex-direction: column; padding: 20px;"}
<span style="font-size: 20px;">
**Merged**
**(n = 41,845)**
</span>
:::
:::
::: {.notes}
The cleaning process was designed to enhance compatibility for integration with other surveys and the Canadian Election Studies, ensuring consistency across
datasets. Ultimately, the dataset comprised n = 12,191 complete cases after the removal of missing data in the dependent or independent variables.
:::
## Methodology {.smaller}
### Confirming Previous Findings
- Linear regression modeling (14 models)
- DV = respondent’s perspective on Quebec’s independence
- IV = generational cohort, geographical region, along with control variables including political interest, gender, language, Canadian origin, and family income percentile
- The interaction between generation and region was specifically included to examine the varied effects of these factors
::: {.notes}
AJOUT À LA LECTURE DE LA SLIDE: Participants were classified into distinct generational cohorts. This categorization was aligned with the age groups defined in the 2021 Canadian Census data to facilitate the analysis of prevailing attitudes
:::
## Methodology {.smaller}
### Current attitudes and Zoom on *Zoomers*
- Data from 2021 to 2023 (n = 6,687)
- Interaction term incorporating generation, region, and language
- Same DV and IV than the precedent models
::: {.notes}
:::
## Methodology {.smaller}
:::: {.columns}
::: {.column width="40%"}
### By ridings
- Creating a post-stratification table using the 2021 Canadian
Census Data organized by ridings
:::
::: {.column width="40%"}
### By categories of regions
- Grouping ridings into categories of regions
- Montreal, Greater Montreal Area (GMA), Quebec City, and other regions
:::
::::
::: {.notes}
The post-stratification table is the table containing the weights of each zoomer by riding. The regression model was applied to each stratum of the post-stratification table,
facilitating interpretation at both the ridings and regional levels. Predictions could then
be aggregated as a weighted average across various population segments, whether at the
ridings or regional level.
:::
## Results
----
::: {.notes}
The five following graphs focus on the evolution of independentist attitudes over time and concentrate on confirming previous studies. I will go through these graphs more quickly as they are not directly relevant to the research question.
Overall, these graphs indeed confirm recent studies showing that it's not only the boomers who carry the question of Quebec's independence. The graphs also show that the life cycle effect should be put into perspective since the independentist attitudes of boomers or pre-boomers do not necessarily diminish over time. We can also observe the effect of different periods.
For pre-boomers, boomers, and Generation X, we observe a marked evolution of political attitudes during their young adult period. For Generations Y and Z, our data do not allow us to observe a pronounced evolution of attitudes towards independence. There are no pronounced effects of regions when taking into account the error margins, which do not appear on the presented graphs.
:::
----
::: {.notes}
The five following graphs focus on the evolution of independentist attitudes over time and concentrate on confirming previous studies. I will go through these graphs more quickly as they are not directly relevant to the research question.
Overall, these graphs indeed confirm recent studies showing that it's not only the boomers who carry the question of Quebec's independence. The graphs also show that the life cycle effect should be put into perspective since the independentist attitudes of boomers or pre-boomers do not necessarily diminish over time. We can also observe the effect of different periods.
For pre-boomers, boomers, and Generation X, we observe a marked evolution of political attitudes during their young adult period. For Generations Y and Z, our data do not allow us to observe a pronounced evolution of attitudes towards independence. There are no pronounced effects of regions when taking into account the error margins, which do not appear on the presented graphs.
:::
----
::: {.notes}
The five following graphs focus on the evolution of independentist attitudes over time and concentrate on confirming previous studies. I will go through these graphs more quickly as they are not directly relevant to the research question.
Overall, these graphs indeed confirm recent studies showing that it's not only the boomers who carry the question of Quebec's independence. The graphs also show that the life cycle effect should be put into perspective since the independentist attitudes of boomers or pre-boomers do not necessarily diminish over time. We can also observe the effect of different periods.
For pre-boomers, boomers, and Generation X, we observe a marked evolution of political attitudes during their young adult period. For Generations Y and Z, our data do not allow us to observe a pronounced evolution of attitudes towards independence. There are no pronounced effects of regions when taking into account the error margins, which do not appear on the presented graphs.
:::
----
::: {.notes}
The five following graphs focus on the evolution of independentist attitudes over time and concentrate on confirming previous studies. I will go through these graphs more quickly as they are not directly relevant to the research question.
Overall, these graphs indeed confirm recent studies showing that it's not only the boomers who carry the question of Quebec's independence. The graphs also show that the life cycle effect should be put into perspective since the independentist attitudes of boomers or pre-boomers do not necessarily diminish over time. We can also observe the effect of different periods.
For pre-boomers, boomers, and Generation X, we observe a marked evolution of political attitudes during their young adult period. For Generations Y and Z, our data do not allow us to observe a pronounced evolution of attitudes towards independence. There are no pronounced effects of regions when taking into account the error margins, which do not appear on the presented graphs.
:::
----
::: {.notes}
The five following graphs focus on the evolution of independentist attitudes over time and concentrate on confirming previous studies. I will go through these graphs more quickly as they are not directly relevant to the research question.
Overall, these graphs indeed confirm recent studies showing that it's not only the boomers who carry the question of Quebec's independence. The graphs also show that the life cycle effect should be put into perspective since the independentist attitudes of boomers or pre-boomers do not necessarily diminish over time. We can also observe the effect of different periods.
For pre-boomers, boomers, and Generation X, we observe a marked evolution of political attitudes during their young adult period. For Generations Y and Z, our data do not allow us to observe a pronounced evolution of attitudes towards independence. There are no pronounced effects of regions when taking into account the error margins, which do not appear on the presented graphs.
:::
----
::: {.notes}
The current graph is interesting for clearly visualizing the current attitudes of different generations. What particularly interests us is Generation Z, as we theoretically assume that the current attitudes of other generations will not be as subject to evolution.
We observe a depolarization of attitudes towards independence among different linguistic groups. A pivotal observation within Generation Z is the significant tendency of Allophones and Anglophones in the Greater Montreal Area (GMA) to have attitudes that are as, if not less, federalist than Francophones.
:::
----
::: {.notes}
In the broader regions, the homogeneity of the data points suggests views on sovereignty that are relatively aligned in these areas. These views correspond to a moderate federalism. Transitioning to Montreal, a discernible trend emerges where ridings with a denser Generation Z population exhibit a tendency towards a more relaxed federalism. In the Greater Montreal Area, the graph reflects a similar pattern of uncertainty in ridings with fewer Generation Z constituents.
Interestingly, GMA is identified as having a higher likelihood of separatist leanings among Generation Z. Here, the support for federalism is broadly in line with that of Montreal’s ridings, with a notable exception in areas such as Jean-Talon, where a denser Generation Z population correlates with a stronger federalist sentiment.
The data collectively signify that while Generation Z’s disposition across Quebec leans towards federalism, the intensity of this inclination is modulated by the proportion of Gen Z residents, particularly in urban areas.
:::
## Limitations
- The generational boundaries are somewhat arbitrary because their definition is influenced by the alignment with census data
- Generational groups as clean-cut groups
- The assumption that similar demographic segments in different ridings within the same region will yield identical predictions
## Conclusion
Where lies the potential evolution of attitudes towards Quebec's independence in the Gen Z?
- Among Zoomers, the GMA is less attached to federalism
- Few differences between Zoomers' linguistic profiles in terms of how they feel about independence
::: {.notes}
Notes
:::