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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<title>District Economic Growth </title>
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<meta content="Our analysis of economic growth in our western Arizona economy."
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<meta content="Alan Pruitt, @westernazedd"
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<span id="myIntro" class="w3-hide">CEDS | Economic Growth</span></p>
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<h1 class="w3-xxlarge">Western Arizona Economic Development District</h1>
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<h2>8.0 Economic Growth</h2>
<h3 id="c81">8.1 Economic Forecast Data</h3>
<p>
While concerns about the future are building, current economic performance in Arizona remains strong. Very strong. After robust job gains in the third quarter of 2018, Arizona accelerated again according to preliminary estimates. State growth rose from 3.0% in the third quarter to 3.4% in the fourth quarter, the fourth consecutive acceleration. Also, income and population gains remained stable, well above national results.
</p>
<p>
The outlook calls for Arizona and the U.S. to continue expanding in the near term, although growth decelerates from the torrid pace set recently. The national slowdown is driven by the dissipation of the federal fiscal stimulus, the lagged impacts of past interest rate increases, uncertainty about resolving trade disputes, and decelerating global economic performance.
</p>
<p>
While recession risks are low this year, 2020 is another story altogether. Slower national gains will weigh on Arizona's growth in the near term. Further, a decelerating national economy will translate into an elevated risk of recession in 2020 for Arizona as well. And then there are the new disasters awaiting the Arizona economy as a result of the COVID-19 Pandemic.
</p>
<h6><a href="ceds.html">Return to CEDS</a></h6>
<hr>
<h3 id="c82">8.2 Arizona Recent Developments</h3>
<p>
Let's start with labor market developments. According to the preliminary data, Arizona generated substantial job gains in the fourth quarter of 2018, with employment increasing by 96,200 over the year. That translated into a growth of 3.4%, which far outpaced the U.S. at 1.7%.
</p>
<p>
Most of the job growth was driven by construction, professional and business services, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality. These four sectors alone accounted for 67.8% of net job gains over the year. Note also that manufacturing added jobs at a solid clip.
</p>
<p>
That is encouraging because those jobs tend to pay relatively high wages. According to the latest population estimates from the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity, Arizona's population hit 7,076,199 on July 1, 2018. The state added 110,302 residents from July 2017 to July 2018, translating into a growth rate of 1.6%. That was slightly faster than the method-consistent rate of 1.5% in 2017. As usual, Arizona population growth far outpaced the U.S. at 0.7%.
</p>
<h6><a href="ceds.html">Return to CEDS</a></h6>
<hr>
<h3 id="c83">8.3 Arizona Outlook</h3>
<p>
While concerns about the durability of the U.S. expansion abound, current performance remains stable. The January IHS Markit baseline forecast calls for real GDP growth to decelerate from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.5% in 2019, then to 2.0% in 2020. That forecast boils down to gradual deceleration from above-trend growth in 2018-2019 to trend growth by 2020.
</p>
<p>
This year's slowing growth is driven by the dissipation of the federal fiscal stimulus, the lagged impacts of past interest rate increases, uncertainty about the resolution of trade disputes, and decelerating global economic performance.
</p>
<p>
Interest rate spreads have been gradually narrowing during the expansion. While long-term rates are generally above short-term rates, this relationship is sometimes reversed during monetary tightening periods.
</p>
<p>
This relationship is known as a yield-curve inversion, and when it happens, recessions often follow. We are nearing in such a situation. In January 2019, the 10-year Treasury rate was 0.29 percentage points above the three-month rate. The 10-year rate was 0.17 percentage points above the 2-year rate.
</p>
<p>
Overall, the national outlook sets the stage for continued gains in Arizona. Job growth in Arizona is forecast to decelerate from 3.2% in 2018 to 2.6% in 2019 and 2.3% in 2020.
</p>
<p>
Construction jobs rise in the near term, reflecting in part increased residential building. Arizona housing permits are forecast to rise from 41,949 in 2018 to 44,437 by 2020.
</p>
<p>
Substantial increases in employment, combined with tightening labor markets and a rising minimum wage, support continued wage and income growth. Personal income rises by 6.3% in 2019 and 6.2% by 2020. In turn, expanding income drives household spending, although retail sales gains are expected to soften after reliable results in 2018.
</p>
<p>
Arizona population continues to expand, as robust labor market performance attracts migrants from other states. Natural increase (births minus deaths) remains weak as its aging population takes its toll.
</p>
<h6><a href="ceds.html">Return to CEDS</a></h6>
<hr>
<h3 id="c84">8.4 Risks to the Outlook</h3>
<p>
While the U.S. baseline outlook calls for continued growth, we should consider alternative scenarios. Given recent concerns about the U.S. economy's ability to keep growing, let's start with the pessimistic scenario. This story assumes two primary sources of trouble. The first is real estate prices, which are expected to turn slowing growth into outright declines.
</p>
<p>
This damages consumer confidence and household spending pullback. Further, an inverted yield curve hurts business confidence, resulting in falling stock prices and reduced nonresidential investment. Overall, the pessimistic scenario generates a moderate three-quarter recession beginning in the first quarter of 2020.
</p>
<p>
On a brighter note, the optimistic scenario assumes faster productivity growth, combined with a less inflation-prone labor market and an economy more tolerant of rising interest rates. This scenario allows for more rapid U.S. growth to be consistent with low inflation. The result is a more robust overall economic performance, with real GDP growth 1.1 percentage points above the baseline during the next decade.
</p>
<p>
Arizona's growth depends in part on national economic performance. If the U.S. falls into recession, that will generate slower growth or a downturn in the state economy. A national decline of the sort envisioned under the pessimistic scenario would not produce a severe drop in economic activity in Arizona. In a similar vein, stronger U.S. performance would translate into a more robust state economy.
</p>
<h6><a href="ceds.html">Return to CEDS</a></h6>
<hr>
<h3 id="c85">8.5 Other Economic Growth Factors</h3>
<p>
A reasonable question is whether Yuma and Mohave Counties can sustain such population growth rates over the next 20 years. Both counties have most of their land area tied up in federal, state, and tribal land ownership. Many cities and towns are virtually <em>landlocked</em>. Yet these counties are very sizable in geographic extent, being among the state and country's largest counties.
<p>
The planned urban density developments for Mohave County show that such counties can absorb such population growth. It should also be recognized that tribal land is available for development, even if such development may be more difficult in some ways than for property in private ownership.
</p>
<p>
Both Yuma and Mohave County have enough developable land to grow at these rates for the foreseeable future. A more likely limit to growth will be water availability. At present, both Yuma and Mohave Counties have sufficient water to handle a population of 500,000.
</p>
<p>
In Mohave County, the development of non-Colorado River resources may be necessary, but water should not severely limit growth up to a population total of at least 500,000. One potential for expanding water resources for residential development is the transfer of water rights from agricultural users to residential use.
</p>
<p>
In Yuma County, the vast majority of water rights, many senior rights, reside with agricultural producers; in Mohave County, agriculture is much less extensive, but this still presents a potential for transference to residential use. The water issue is less, can it be made available, then what will it cost. As the population grows, water will start exerting pressure to limit growth through its increasing expense, more than through its availability. Both counties should achieve a population of at least 500,000 before water limitations begin to be felt.
</p>
<p>
In Mohave County, development seems to have several centers. The two existing population centers of Kingman/Golden Valley and Bullhead City have seen massive developments announced for their communities. Lake Havasu is currently the fastest growing city in the county and should continue to see significant growth in the future. However, Bullhead City may pass it as the county's largest incorporated city.
</p>
<p>
Interstate 11 (I-11) is an Interstate Highway that currently runs for 22.8 miles (36.7 km) on a predominantly northwest-southeast alignment in the U.S. state of Nevada, running concurrently with U.S. Route 93 (U.S. 93) between the Arizona state line and Henderson. The freeway is tentatively planned to run from Nogales, Arizona, to Reno, Nevada, generally following the current routes of I-19, I-10, U.S. 93, and U.S. 95.
</p>
<p>
Planners anticipate upgrading two existing highway segments to carry future I-11: U.S. 93 in Arizona from Wickenburg to the Nevada state line on the Mike O'Callaghan-Pat Tillman Memorial Bridge over the Colorado River and U.S. 95 in Nevada from the edge of the Las Vegas Valley to Tonopah. An exact alignment for I-11 has yet to be determined outside of these sections or through the Las Vegas Valley; however, several corridor alternatives have been identified for further study and refinement.
</p>
<aside>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/tillmanbridge?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#tillmanbridge</a> below the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/hooverdam?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#hooverdam</a> is a vital economic growth factor for <a href="https://twitter.com/mohavecounty?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@mohavecounty</a> and reported by our District <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CEDS?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CEDS</a> on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Google?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Google</a> <a href="https://t.co/pIh9FOdH0Q">https://t.co/pIh9FOdH0Q</a></p>— Western Arizona EDD (@westernazedd) <a href="https://twitter.com/westernazedd/status/1318953831342821376?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 21, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
</aside>
<p>
As initially proposed in 2012 Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act, the highway would only run from Casa Grande, Arizona, to Las Vegas, Nevada, via Kingman and Buckeye, Arizona. This highway provided a direct Interstate link between the Las Vegas and Phoenix metropolitan areas, which are currently the two largest adjacent American cities lacking a direct freeway link. However, the corridor's extensions to the north towards Reno and the south towards Tucson, Arizona, have since been approved.
</p>
<p>
This highway's proposed numbering does not fit within the usual conventions of the existing Interstate Highway grid. At least in the initial phase south of Las Vegas, it would be entirely east of Interstate 15. It should, therefore, have a number higher than 15. But Interstate 17 was already built to the east of the Interstate 11 alignment in Arizona, making it impossible to fit this freeway's interstate number into the national grid and remain within the traditional numbering convention. The subsequent plan to extend the Interstate north of Las Vegas to Reno would, if constructed, put that portion of I-11 west of I-15 and thus in line with the national grid numbering conventions.
</p>
<picture>
<img src="img/jpg/pat_tillman_bridge_250.jpg" style="width: 250px; height: 250px; border: 1px solid blue; float: left; margin-right: 15px;margin-top: 15px;" alt="mike o'callaghan-pat tillman memorial bridge">
</picture>
<p>
The Mike O'Callaghan–Pat Tillman Memorial Bridge is an arch bridge in the United States that spans the Colorado River between Arizona and Nevada. The bridge is located within the Lake Mead National Recreation Area, approximately 30 miles (48 km) southeast of Las Vegas, and carries U.S. Route 93.
</p>
<p>
Opened in 2010, it was the critical component of the Hoover Dam Bypass project, which rerouted U.S. 93 from its previous routing along the top of Hoover Dam and removed several hairpins turns and blind curves from the route. It is jointly named for Mike O'Callaghan, Governor of Nevada from 1971–1979, and Pat Tillman, an American football player who left his career with the Arizona Cardinals to enlist in the United States Army and was later killed in Afghanistan by friendly fire.
</p>
<p>
As early as the 1960s, officials identified the U.S. 93 route over Hoover Dam to be dangerous and inadequate for projected traffic volumes. From 1998–2001, officials from Arizona, Nevada, and several federal government agencies collaborated to determine the best routing for an alternative river crossing. In March 2001, the Federal Highway Administration selected the route, which crosses the Colorado River approximately 1,500 feet (460 m) downstream of Hoover Dam.
</p>
<p>
Construction of the bridge approaches began in 2003, and the development of the bridge itself began in February 2005. The bridge was completed in 2010, and the entire bypass route opened to vehicle traffic on October 19, 2010. The Hoover Dam Bypass project was completed within budget at <strong>$240M USD</strong>; the bridge portion cost <strong>$114M USD</strong>.
</p>
<p>
The bridge was the first concrete-steel composite arch bridge built in the United States and incorporated the Western Hemisphere's most sweeping concrete arch. At 890 feet (270 ) above the Colorado River, it is the second-highest bridge in the United States after the Royal Gorge Bridge and is the world's tallest concrete arch bridge.
</p>
<p>
Upon completing the Boulder City Bypass, the bridge has become a part of Interstate 11, concurrent with U.S. Highway 93.
</p>
<p>
For Yuma County, growth seems to be focusing on the area immediately east of the City of Yuma and in the South County communities of San Luis and Somerton. San Luis is growing at a very rapid pace, and this seems to be continuing. San Luis may be challenging Yuma at current growth rates for the privilege of being the county's biggest city within 20 years.
</p>
<p>
Growth further east, in the Wellton area, may also dramatically increase. Yuma County will likely see significant development limited to the county's small southwest corner where past growth has occurred. This development would be the City of Yuma south to the Mexican border, and the border community of San Luis, and east to Wellton. Major development north of the City of Yuma and east of Wellton is unlikely.
</p>
<p>
For Mohave County, we will continue to see increased population concentrations. The existing population centers of Bullhead City, Kingman area, and Lake Havasu will continue to grow, with a new population concentration developing along the US-93 corridor, near Las Vegas.
</p>
<p>
There is also the potential for significant development in the far north of the county, where a corner of Mohave County is between the Nevada gambling center of Mesquite and the rapidly growing retirement center of St. George, Utah. A new freeway exit will open this part of Mohave County to develop. Its location between two growing communities is likely to result in at least some, and possibly significant progress.
</p>
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